SINGAPORE: CBOT May wheat may drop into a range of $6.80-1/2 to $6.89-1/2 per bushel, due to the completion of a bounce from the March 10 low of $6.61.
The completion was confirmed by the repeated failures of the contract to break a resistance at $7.12 and the subsequent drop.
The ultimate bounce target was fixed at $7.21-3/4, the peak of the wave 4.
With the break below a rising trendline, it is time to abort this target.
Over the next few days, wheat may drop towards a wide range of $6.61-3/4 to $6.80-1/2. Whether the preceding downtrend from the Feb. 14 high of $8.07-1/2 has resumed is subject to further observation.
Any stabilization of the price above $6.61-3/4 may be considered as the first sign of the bounce extension.
CBOT wheat may retest resistance at $7.03-1/4
Resistance is at $7.03-1/4, a break above which could lead to a gain into $7.06-1/2 to $7.12 range. On the daily chart, a bounce target of $7.31-1/4 became invalid.
A bearish target of $6.75-1/2 has been established.
It is not very clear that the second bounce occurs around $6.75-1/2.
The occurrence will be very unlikely if wheat closes below this level on Monday.
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