SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were pinned near two-year lows on Monday, as investors shorted the resource-rich currencies to reflect the risk of a global downturn.
The Aussie looked punch drunk at $0.6812, after sliding 1.2% on Friday and hitting a trough of $0.6764.
The break of the May low at $0.6829 was technically bearish for a move to $0.6750 and $0.6680. The kiwi dollar stood at $0.6210, having lost 0.7% on Friday and reaching as low as $0.6150.
The breach of its June floor of $0.6197 opened the door to $0.5920 support. The Aussie was undermined by steep falls in copper and iron ore, both of which are big export earners.
“The LMEX index had its worst quarter since 2008, signalling that the global growth outlook is deteriorating markedly as central banks raise rates super aggressively, the Fed enacts record QT, and China maintains its zero-COVID policy,” said Sean Callow, an FX analyst at Westpac.
Australia, NZ dollars lean on support
“The A$ should remain capped by the $0.6910/50 region and the $0.6750 level will be important support as it represents the 50% retracement of the March 2020 low to Feb 2021 high plus a trend line off the March and Dec 2021 lows.”
The prospect of higher domestic interest rates has done little to help either currency.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its July policy meeting on Tuesday and futures are leaning toward another hike of 50 basis points to 1.35%.
A strong reading on job advertisements only added to evidence of a tightening labour market and argued for moving by 50 basis points rather than 25.
Still, markets have scaled back expectations for the entire tightening cycle with rates now seen around 3.0% by year-end compared with 3.75% early in June.
They are also toying with the idea of rate cuts in the second half of next year, presumably on wagers much of the world would have entered a downturn by then.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is seen hiking its 2.0% cash rate by 50 basis points in July and August, though recent data has been dire enough for the market to lower the expected peak for rates.
“The outlook for the economy is dimming,” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. “The July meeting would mark the third straight 50bp hike, but similar to offshore central banks, the RBNZ may soften its tone around the outlook, acknowledging the waning strength in the forward activity indicators.”
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