PARIS: Strategie Grains on Thursday lowered its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports this season, with the consultancy’s monthly cereals report citing significant shipments from Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine.
The French firm cut its estimate of EU soft wheat exports in the 2021/22 season to June to 31.4 million tonnes from the 32.5 million forecast in March, when it had anticipated a bigger shift in demand from Ukrainian and Russian supplies towards EU wheat.
However, Strategie Grains increased its projection of EU soft wheat exports in 2022/23 by 0.5 million tonnes to 30.3 million, factoring in a protracted conflict in Ukraine and poor crop weather in the United States.
It also trimmed by 200,000 tonnes its forecast of EU soft wheat production for 2022/23, now seen at 126.7 million tonnes, more than 3 million tonnes below this season’s output.
EU wheat supply is still expected to be balanced next season, thanks to lower demand for wheat in animal feed because of difficulties in the livestock sector, it said.
The consultancy reduced by 1.5 million tonnes its forecast for soft wheat use in feed while also reducing its estimate of expected feed demand for maize (corn) and barley by about 1 million tonnes each.
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