ISLAMABAD: The speakers at a webinar on Friday said that the new US President Joe Biden would not get involved in Pakistan's domestic policy, but would keep exerting pressure on issues involving militancy, terrorism, and human rights.
Speaking at the webinar organised by the Institute for Policy Reforms, Dr Marvin Weinbaum, a former ambassador and a scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute, said that it was hard to imagine to see a prosperous Afghanistan and region without Pakistan's support. He said that the US-Pakistan relations had been seen through the Afghan lens, but during the last four years, the situation in the region had changed altogether, as Afghanistan was in a different place today than it was in 2016. He said that if the ongoing talks between the US and the Taliban failed, Pakistan could be seen as a "spoiler", for which he contended, both Pakistan and the US should be cautious, as neither side wants "a Taliban Emirates". "Though, no country openly talks about a Taliban Emirates [as for Taliban the legitimacy of a state rests on having a government strictly compliant with Islamic laws], but behind the door, they all want a power-sharing government in Afghanistan," he added.
Micahel Kugelman, the deputy director and senior associate for South Asia at Woodrow Wilson Centre, said that President Biden's policy for South Asia would be no different than his predecessor Donald Trump especially with regard to Pakistan he would prefer working relations. Like his predecessor, he may also consider the US troops' withdrawal from Afghanistan besides strengthening his strategic partnership with India - an arch rival of Pakistan - would remain unchanged. "President Biden can shake up the US policy for South Asia, but it would be softer, kinder, and cautious," he added. He said that Biden would have a robust policy to counter terrorism, adding, the new US administration might pressure Pakistan to shut "terror camps" identified by India.
As far as US relations with Iran and China, he added, it is expected that Biden Admin would have modest relations with both the countries unlike his predecessor. He continued that the focus of President Biden in South Asia would be more on human rights issues, but he would relatively go easy on India for strategic reasons compared to Pakistan. Kugelman maintained that the US position on Pakistan and India might remain the same as it might play the role of a "crisis manager" and not that of a "mediator" to resolve the issues between the nuclear-armed rivals. "The new US admin would encourage both the countries to work out their issues amicably...I don't realty see President Biden practically playing the role of a mediator between the two countries," he added.
Ashraf Jehangir Qazir, a former ambassador of Pakistan to Washington, India and too many other world capitals, categorically said that Pakistan would be "befooling" itself if it still thinks it would have a strategic relationship with the US, given the past experience in which the latter always preferred to go with India". "In 1962, then in 1965 and 1971 war between India and Pakistan, the role of the US is in front of us and we should learn a lesson before making any attempt for strategic relations with the US," he warned. He continued that Pakistan made several attempts to become a US strategic ally but it did not work out, adding the US chose India as its strategic partner in the region to counter China. "Given the situation which we've been seeing for the last so many decades, Pakistan should not expect the US to be balanced in Pakistan-India relations," he declared.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
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