ISLAMABAD: The compounding impacts of Covid-19 and locust swarms raise grave concerns about agricultural production and food security, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The ADB in its latest brief, 'Impact of Covid-19 and Locust Swarms on Farm Households in Sindh, Pakistan: Analysis of Data from a cross-sectional survey,' revealed that Covid-19 outbreak affected various channels of Pakistan's economy slowing it down; consequently, the country's provisional growth of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2019-2020 is estimated at -0.4 percent, with agriculture, the only sector showing positive growth, at 2.7 percent.
While the locust threat to agriculture is not larger than that posed by the Covid-19, their simultaneous occurrence will have a compound effect with grave results.
Government response is urgently needed to offset the negative effects of Covid-19 and the locust attacks, it added.
The lockdown significantly disrupted food supply chains across major agricultural products including wheat, vegetables, fruits, and milk, with most respondents reporting being unable to market their produce.
Tomato farmers faced substantial disruption, with 61 percent of respondents unable to complete their harvest at the usual time.
The survey noted that the compounding impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and locust swarms raise grave concerns about agricultural production and food security in Sindh province.
While the long-term consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the locust swarms will become more apparent in the coming months.
The Covid-19 and locust swarms had a significant impact on the livelihoods they obtained through agricultural products, including wheat, vegetables, fruits, and dairy products.
Tomato farmers faced especially acute difficulties, with the majority choosing not to harvest their crop.
The challenges most often cited were the farmers' inability to travel to markets and cities and the unavailability of traders to purchase the crops.
Most respondents faced challenges related to farming activities.
The increased prices of farm inputs, especially seeds, were commonly cited. Three-quarters of respondents reported increased financial difficulties because of these challenges. Upper and Lower Sindh respondents reported an almost universal lack of government response as a source of information about the swarms or relief in the form of surveys and spraying.
The brief further stated that the market disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and its related policy measures were temporary. The government needs to monitor and ensure the functioning of market activities and the availability of agricultural inputs, as requested by farmers.
The locust swarms may require action to both mitigate the damage already caused and to invest in long-term means to help farmers and communities prepare for future locust swarms. The survey also sought to determine the impact of the locust invasion in the region.
Over half of the survey respondents (58.3 percent) reported lower food consumption in their households, over a third (37.3 percent) indicated that their households experienced losses in wages and non-farm earnings because of the Covid-19, and 39.5 percent reported that at least one family member had returned home from urban and other areas.
Farm households are burdened by an increase in the number of household members and reduced cash income, which result in reduced non-food expenditures, as reported by 45.4 percent of respondents.
The Covid-19-related problems have severely affected farmers of all crops (including wheat, tomato, fruits, and vegetables) and dairy. Over 65 percent of wheat farmers and more than 67 percent of fruit and vegetable farmers reported difficulties with selling their produce.
Tomato farmers experienced an even more severe outcome-over 32 percent were unable to market their produce at all, and a further 61.2 percent were able to do so, but with difficulty; in addition, 61 percent of respondents were unable to complete their tomato harvest.
Milk producers were also affected, as traders were unable or unwilling to buy milk from milk producers. Among the respondents, 81 percent of milk producers reported that they were unable to market their produce daily in the past few months.
Farmers cited market closures and the unavailability of traders due to movement restrictions among their main difficulties. Furthermore, as many restaurants and markets had shut down, weddings and other festivals were canceled or celebrated more simply and in smaller gatherings. As a consequence, the demand for milk and tomatoes collapsed, resulting in low market prices.
In addition, farmers faced acute problems during the kharif (summer) cultivation season because of the limited availability and increased prices of farm inputs, particularly seeds.
Another major concern, especially for farmers in Upper Sindh, is the severe locust invasion. Measures to contain the invasion and prevent further crop losses are urgently required, as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has noted that locusts are still present in Balochistan near border areas of Sindh, and predicts that adult groups and small swarms along the India-Pakistan border will mature, lay eggs, and thus, cause a smaller but second wave of locust swarms in Oct.
To mitigate the severe impacts of the Covid-19 and the locust swarms, the survey respondents identified the following essential actions, in order of priority: (i) ensure timely supply of agricultural inputs, (ii) ensure price stability for agricultural produce, (iii) ease loan repayment conditions or provide waive loans, and (iv) remove restrictions on marketing agricultural produce in districts beyond where it was grown.
The Covid-related nationwide lockdown effectively halted most non-agricultural economic activities, with a potentially detrimental impact on food supply chains.
Pakistan relies largely on inter-provincial movement of food to balance supply and demand across the seasons, and to take advantage of different agro-ecological zones. Wheat is a main commodity associated with food security through inter-provincial trade.
A similar phone survey in Punjab, found that harvesting and marketing of perishables such as fruits, vegetables, and milk was negatively affected due to the lockdown, which can have implications for food security in Pakistan.
The sowing of kharif crops and harvesting of rabi crops began shortly after lockdown was declared. The kharif cultivation period starts earlier in Sindh and Balochistan (in April) than in Punjab and the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (in May).
The FAO estimated that, without effective measures, locust infestations would cause up to Rs688.5 billion ($4.1 billion) in damage of kharif crops, and Rs705.8 billion ($4.2 billion) of rabi crops, assuming 25 percent damage to crops.
An infestation of such magnitude has not occurred in the last 25 years, and the outdated government infrastructure for locust control is ill-equipped to fight the new locust attacks. The locust swarms remain an ongoing threat.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020
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