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Taiwan voters will cast ballots this weekend to form a government body to approve legislation passed last year, but the poll is shaping up instead as a referendum on President Chen Shui-bian's China policy. The 300 members of the National Assembly who will be chosen in Saturday's vote will vote on reforms passed by parliament last August that aim to halve the legislature and replace its current electoral system featuring multiple-constituency and proportional representation as well as make it possible to hold referendums. The body - a legacy from Taiwan's former dual parliament system - is being formed only for the purpose of voting on the reforms and will be dismantled by the end of the year.
But China policy, not political reform, is dominating the run-up to the poll. As votes are cast for the party, not individual candidates, whichever group wins the most ballots gets an effective endorsement of its approach.
Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) stands for making the island of 23 million people independent from the mainland.
The opposition Nationalists, or Kuomintang (KMT), headed by Lien Chan favour more a accommodative stance towards China.
China refuses to deal with President Chen but recently welcomed Lien to the mainland. This week it is hosting another opposition leader, James Soong of the pro-unification People First Party.
The Nationalists fled China in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong. China now sees Taiwan as a renegade province.
"Even though China has almost nothing to do with this election, the outcome is likely to reflect the current political atmosphere," said Lo Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, a private think tank.
"Many DPP supporters may not vote because they are unhappy with the way Chen handles policy towards the mainland," Lo said.
The constitutional amendments the National Assembly will vote on are aimed at streamlining parliament, notorious for being a floor for fistfights, and creating more stable two-party politics. The legislation allowing referendums is sensitive because China fears Taiwan could use them to assert independence.
Both the DPP and KMT, the two biggest parties, have thrown their support behind the reforms, which benefit them as the likely winners in a two-party system. Analysts say that they are likely to win the majority needed to ratify the amendments.
Chen has accused Beijing of attempting to interfere in Taiwan's internal affairs by distracting Taiwan people from the business of political reform with recent opposition visits.
"At a time when everyone is occupied by the China mania, nobody remembers the May 14 election. This is exactly what China wants," Chen told Taiwan's Sanlih Television late on Sunday.
"China is trying to interfere with, and direct, Taiwan's internal and constitutional affairs. This is a very serious matter."
Lien, who is against Taiwan independence, last month ended decades of hostilities between the Nationalists and the Communists in a handshake with President Hu Jintao in Beijing.
After the meeting, both sides promised to work together to improve economic and cultural exchanges across the Taiwan Strait.
The independence-minded Chen had initially given his blessing to both Lien and Soong who is visiting China this week. But under fire from members of his own party, he has shifted to a tougher stance in recent days.

Copyright Reuters, 2005

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