Russia's wheat export tax, which Moscow introduced on June 2 and is changing each week, will drop to $41.20 per tonne from July 7, according to data from the agriculture ministry.
Prices for new-crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports and for supply in the second half of July were at $256 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $4 from the previous week, IKAR said.
IKAR and Sovecon forecast Russia's 2021 wheat crop at 79.5 million tonnes and 80.9 million tonnes respectively.
Sovecon, another consultancy, said wheat prices rose by $3 to $247 per tonne, while barley was steady at $233 a tonne.
Demand for Siberian wheat from Kazakhstan, which shares a free customs zone with Russia and is not subject to Moscow's recently-raised grain export taxes, is up significantly, Sovecon said.
Moscow's wheat export tax and a grain export quota, launched on Monday as part of efforts to reduce food inflation amid the coronavirus pandemic, have already been priced in, they said.
Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, said wheat prices fell by $4 to $281, while barley was unchanged at $248.