Modi’s election gamble

Last week Narendra Modi was once again on election trail, and what he is good at selling he did sell by carrying out an action which, according to Indian army, was one step lower in escalation matrix, against villages in Azad Jammu & Kashmir. In that action, however, the Indian army lost nine soldiers, and put up white flag so that it could collect the remains of the dead. This time Modi’s BJP was pitted against Congress and other opposition parties in Haryana and Maharashtra where it had nothing to sell but its Modi-trademark jingoism against Pakistan. On October 15, he tried to win over the indifferent, if not hostile, vote in Haryana by promising that the waters of eastern rivers would not be allowed to flow into Pakistan. And, on the night before the Indian army attacked some border villages in Azad Jammu & Kashmir killing six people, including a soldier. India suffered – of course as a payback – the loss of nine of its soldiers and decimation of two bunkers. But even before the news of its casualties reached the media houses in India, Modi propagandists were claiming to have struck at four places in the Neelam valley, which they described as a terror launch-pads. However, there is some legitimate global scepticism about their claim. Independent Indian commentators always point out that whenever there are elections in major states, the so-called surgical strikes take place. “There is a pattern of surgical strikes. Now the politics of this country will be on surgical strikes,” commented Congress leader Akhilesh Singh.

Reacting to Modi’s threat of disrupting river waters, Pakistan has said such a move would be treated as “aggression” and will be responded appropriately – as was the response to Indian violation of the LOC this past Saturday night. About Indian claim of hitting at ‘terror launch-pads’, the Foreign Office wants the United Nations “to ask India to provide information about the alleged launch-pads”. Pakistan is willing to arrange a visit of P5 diplomats to those locations to expose Indian falsehood. If history is any guide, the LOC violations by Indian forces are not new, but added to it now is a disturbing escalation in the aftermath of withdrawal of autonomous status of Occupied Jammu & Kashmir under the Indian constitution. The Indian government erroneously thinks that raising the incidents of LOC violations would help it divert international attention from the humanitarian nightmare the New Delhi has perpetuated in the Occupied valley. Agreed, the international community hasn’t reacted to India’s barbaric security lockdown and communications blackout in IOK, and to quite a few governments raising voice against Indian perfidy means losing business opportunity. This misadventure now appears to be an Albatross around Narendra Modi’s neck.

These so-called surgical strikes may help Narendra Modi score a few more electoral victories, but he should not remain oblivious of their in-built catastrophic potential and the dire consequences. Even when the government is committed to peaceful resolution of the Kashmir and may keep trying at winning international support, the people of Azad Jammu & Kashmir and Pakistan are fast running out of their patience.