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Markets

Soybeans up on Brazil crop woes; wheat, corn sag

Published Updated

soybeansCHICAGO: US soybean futures rose for a third straight session on Tuesday, buoyed by concerns about Brazil's crop prospects and fresh export demand for US supplies, traders said.

Wheat and corn futures were lower but pared early declines as soybeans rose to a near four-month high.

At the Chicago Board of Trade as of 10:54 a.m. CST (1654 GMT), March soybeans were up 6 cents at $12.58 per bushel, after rising to $12.60-1/2, the highest spot soybean price on the continuous chart since Oct. 17, 2011.

CBOT March wheat was down 2-1/4 cents at $6.39 per bushel and March corn was down 3 cents at $6.36-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans drew support from concerns over dry weather stressing the crop in Brazil, the world's No. 2 soy producer and No. 1 exporter.

"For soybeans, it seems like dryness has now shifted to southern Brazil, which has certainly got the market excited," said Adam Davis, a senior commodity analyst at Merricks Capital in Melbourne.

Hamburg-based analyst Oil World on Tuesday cut its forecast of Brazil's 2011/12 soybean crop to 69.5 million tonnes from 70 million previously.

US analyst Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor lowered his Brazilian soybean estimate by a million tonnes in his weekly report, to 69.0 million tonnes, 3 million below the US Department of Agriculture's current forecast.

Both Oil World and Cordonnier also lowered their estimates of the soybean crops in Paraguay, while Oil World raised its forecast of Argentina's soy crop to 47.0 million tonnes from 46.5 million previously.

Also bullish, USDA confirmed sales of 283,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destinations, including 215,000 for 2011/12 delivery and 68,000 tonnes for 2012/13.

And traders anticipate China's Vice President Xi Jinping may sign a deal to purchase US soybeans this week during a visit to Iowa, the top US soybean state.

RECORD AUSTRALIAN CROP WEIGHS ON WHEAT

CBOT wheat futures were under pressure from a rally in the dollar and Australia's estimate of a record-large crop.

The Australian government lifted its forecast for the country's wheat production this year by 4.2 percent to a record 29.5 million tonnes, from 28.3 million previously, saying key growing regions completed harvesting before the onset of heavy rains.

"It's a big number," said Shawn McCambridge, grains analyst with Jefferies Bache in Chicago.

"We knew they had a large crop. They are going to continue to be very active, whether you are talking about the milling wheat market or the feed wheat sector," McCambridge said.

The higher output forecast for Australia -- which adds to the amply supplied global market -- is more than the 28.3 million tonnes estimated by the US Department of Agriculture in its monthly global demand and supply report last week.

USDA projected world wheat ending stocks at a record-high 213.10 million tonnes, up from its January outlook of 210.02 million and above analysts' expectations.

A firmer dollar added pressure along with early declines on Wall Street after weaker-than-expected January US retail sales data curbed investors' appetite for risky assets.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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