Chicago soybeans set for first annual gain in three years; wheat, corn slide

BEIJING: Chicago soybean futures slipped on Wednesday but were set to log their first annual gain in three years, supported by China’s return to the US market following a late-October trade truce, although ample global supplies capped the advance.

Wheat and corn futures, meanwhile, were on track for a third consecutive year of declines, pressured by abundant supplies.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 4.9% in 2025.

Wheat had fallen 7.6% for the year, while corn was down 4%.

For the day, as of 0421 GMT, corn dropped 0.11% to $4.40 a bushel, wheat slipped 0.24% to $5.09-1/2 a bushel, and soybeans lost 0.21% to $10.60 a bushel.

“Global grain and oilseed markets are stumbling through a pretty typical holiday period.

Outside influences such as the Black Sea conflict and whether a peace deal can be reached have remained the main feature of the markets,“ said Josh Lawrence, adviser at IKON Commodities in Sydney.

In Russia, agricultural consultancy Sovecon, on Tuesday, raised its 2025/26 wheat exports forecast by 0.4 million tons to 44.6 million tons.

The war in Ukraine intensified when Ukrainian drones damaged Russian energy infrastructure and disrupted Kazakhstan’s oil exports.

Ukraine is among the world’s largest exporters of wheat and corn.

Any resolution to the nearly four-year conflict would likely weigh on wheat prices, as reduced shipping risks could lower export costs and improve access to Ukrainian ports.

Elsewhere, Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast to hit a record 27.8 million tons, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, traders have been closely tracking Chinese buying and shipment flows since October.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in early December that China had pledged to purchase 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by the end of February.

China has bought at least 8 million metric tons of US soybeans this year for December-to-March shipments, two traders said.