Rabi crops: PMD warns below-normal rainfall may hinder early growth

KARACHI: Pakistan is likely to face a drier-than-usual start to the winter season along with above-normal temperatures, a development that could affect agriculture, water availability, air quality and public health, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).

The PMD warns that below-normal rainfall in December 2025 may reduce soil moisture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, potentially hindering early growth of Rabi crops.

Farmers in rain-fed regions may rely more on irrigation, increasing costs and further straining water resources. Warmer temperatures may support pest and disease activity in Punjab, Sindh and KP plains, while prolonged dry spells could intensify fog and smog in the country’s lowlands.

Health authorities may also need to prepare for an extended dengue period until colder conditions set in by January and February 2026.

The PMD notes that the September–October–November 2025 period remained mostly dry, with national rainfall standing about six percent below normal.

Northern regions, particularly Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan, saw the biggest deficits, whereas Sindh recorded significantly above-normal rainfall. Temperatures during this period were generally slightly higher than average.

For the December–February season, the forecast shows continued below-normal rainfall over northern Punjab, northern KP, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, while southern Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab may receive near-normal precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to stay above normal across Pakistan, with the strongest warming projected in eastern Gilgit-Baltistan and parts of southern Balochistan and Sindh.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025