SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars drifted sideways on Monday after a week of struggle amid the uncertainty of more US tariffs, while traders awaited Australia’s budget and monthly inflation data for more rate clarity.
The Aussie rose 0.2% to $0.6279, after finishing the week down 0.8% and hitting a low of $0.6258. It has been mostly range-bound this year, unable to crack resistance at $0.6409 while having support at $0.6187.
The kiwi dollar was off 0.1% to $0.5725, marking the fifth straight session of declines.
It fell 0.3% last week, with resistance at the 2025 high of $0.5830 and support at $0.5720.
Australian, New Zealand dollars set to end week on gloomy note
All eyes are on the latest news on US tariffs, with the next round of tariffs looming on April 2 when the White House will announce reciprocal levies on many countries.
President Donald Trump, however, has indicated some flexibility on tariffs.
Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank, expects the Australian dollar to trade between 62 and 64 cents until April 2 when either side of the range could be tested depending on the tariff outcome.
For the longer term, the trend is up if the US dollar declines as assumed.
“China maintaining a broadly stable CNY policy is also required,” said Attrill.
The Australian government is set to deliver a budget deficit on Tuesday after two years of rare surpluses, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese doles out household relief to boost his re-election chances.
However, analysts do not expect big spending impact on inflation.
Swaps imply the central bank will almost certainly skip a move on April 1, having cut rates for the first time in over four years in February.
Another rate cut is not fully priced in until July.
“I don’t think it’s going to be enough to change the trajectory for inflation,” said Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP.
“I think they’re very cautious of that because inflation has been the biggest headwind for consumer spending.”
Monthly inflation numbers for February are also due on Wednesday where forecasts are for an annual rise of 2.5%.
Much attention will be on the trimmed mean measure, which will include updates on many service sectors where price pressures have been rather elevated.
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