SYDNEY: Asian shares bounced on Monday into a week packed with earnings and a trio of central bank meetings that could see the United States and UK open the door to easing, while Japan might lift borrowing costs in a step toward “normality”.
Oil prices inched up on fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East following a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel and the United States blamed on Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Also due this week is the US jobs report for July, closely watched surveys on US and global manufacturing, along with Eurozone gross domestic product and inflation data.
The US Treasury will outline how much bonds it plans to sell for the quarter, while China’s politburo meeting could reveal more stimulus following surprise rate cuts last week.
After a benign June inflation report, markets are wagering the Federal Reserve will lay the groundwork for a September rate cut at its policy meeting on Wednesday.
Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing and even imply a 12% chance of 50 basis points, and have 68 basis points of easing priced in by Christmas.
“The FOMC is set to hold steady but is likely to revise its statement to hint that a cut at the following meeting in September has become more likely,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note.
“We now see the risks to the Fed path as tilted slightly to the downside of our baseline of quarterly rate cuts, though not quite as much as market pricing implies.”
The Bank of Japan also meets Wednesday and markets imply a 70% chance it will hike rates by 10 basis points to 0.2%, with some chance it could move by 15 basis points.
Investors are less sure whether the Bank of England will ease at its meeting on Thursday, with futures showing a 51% probability of a cut to 5%.
Earnings test
The prospect of higher borrowing costs in Japan has been a drag on the Nikkei which shed 6% last week as the yen rallied. Early Monday, the index did manage a bounce of 2.2%, following a firmer finish on Wall Street.
Asia snaps losing streak as chip stocks bounce
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.4%, after losing 2% last week. Chinese blue chips slipped 0.9%, having so far found little support from recent rate cuts.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.6% and FTSE futures 0.5%. S&P 500 futures added 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.6%.
Around 40% of the S&P500 by market worth report this week, including tech darlings Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook-parent Meta Platforms. Expectations are high so any hint of disappointment will test the mega-caps’ sky-high valuations.
“With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a stock level could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote volatility,” said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone.
“Company earnings don’t come much bigger than Microsoft, where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of 4.7% - the after-market session on Tuesday could get lively.”
In currency markets, the Japanese yen was giving back just a little of its recent gains with the dollar inching up to 154.15 yen from last week’s low of 151.93.
The euro was flat at $1.0855, having found support around $1.0825 last week.
In commodity markets, gold firmed 0.5% to $2,398 an ounce , supported by the prospect of a dovish Fed.
Oil prices edged up in early trading on the Middle East news, but quickly turned mixed amid lingering concerns about Chinese demand.
Brent gained 4 cents to $81.17 a barrel, while US crude dipped 7 cents to $77.09 per barrel.
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