As the year draws to a close, one of the most significant regional developments during the year, which also has potential economic repercussions for Pakistan, merits a closer look. It is the agonizing march towards the plausibility of peace in Afghanistan. Back when the US-Taliban peace deal was announced in February 2020, there was optimism in the South Asia region that it would create conditions towards peaceful talks. Nearly a year later, the optimism has diluted, but not entirely dissipated.
Talking and fighting went hand on hand, with Taliban gaining ground. The much-needed ceasefire has remained elusive. On top of deadly bombings all around, the Afghans had to endure Covid-19, further straining fiscal resources. Finally, after almost six months after the February deal, the Taliban Political Commission and the Afghan government and civil society were able to sit down together in Doha in September. Those intra-Afghan talks are stalled, in a shadow of violence that isn’t sparing even children.
The election of Joe Biden, who wasn't fond of US entrenchment in Afghanistan back when he was Obama’s VP, has inspired more uncertainty. Trump, for all his unpredictability, was seen as someone intent on bringing all remaining troops home from America’s longest war. In fact, he announced after his election loss that US would reduce troop level to 2,500 by mid-January. This complicates things for Biden. Even the original schedule where US is to fully withdraw by mid-2021 poses issues for next president.
Biden’s men, many of whom have prior practice or experience in dealing with the Afghan conundrum, don’t look like they are in much of a haste to pack the bags. But they aren’t in a position to order a troop surge either. America needs all its economic firepower to fight the healthcare and economic crisis at home. Most likely, some form of a security arrangement will be negotiated where the US gets to keep some skeletal presence on a base, in order to monitor activities that affect its national security.
Meanwhile, the indefatigable Zalmay Khalilzad continues his rounds in the region, prodding here and pleading there. The Afghan-American diplomat deserves credit for helping keep the patient alive so far. But he alone cannot thread this needle. Biden will do well to not only let the ambassador continue in his role, but also empower the emissary with diplomatic tools – such as incentives of financial assistance and potential trade deals down the road – that can persuade the hesitant parties to play ball.
For Pakistan, Biden’s election is an opportunity to keep the US positively engaged, even if it is through the Afghan lens. The Trump administration had applied a lot of pressure, but Pakistan in the end seems to have little to show for complying with the demands. Biden understands the regional situation well, and his nuanced views may provide Pakistan some space to eke out much more than short-term reprieves.
Unlike Trump, Biden is less likely to look to cut and run from Afghanistan. Previous studies have suggested that Afghan government would need about $8 billion in foreign aid per annum just to stay afloat in a post-war situation. On the question of whether one can expect multilateral and bilateral aid commitments to roll in should a peaceful power sharing occur in 2021 or beyond, Biden’s election is a positive omen. There is also prospect of revival of old regional projects like TAPI and CASA-1000.
Pakistan would need to demonstrate that it has a stake in Afghanistan’s economic future, not just its political fate. It needs to be a part of the economic discussions as well. Its conglomerates need to start working now to position themselves for infrastructure development and trade and investment opportunities down the road. The recent visit of PM Khan to Kabul, his first while in office, has created some optimism about a regional approach to Afghanistan’s development. This is something to build on.
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