UK GAS-Prompt prices rise with temperatures set to turn colder

LONDON: Prompt wholesale British gas prices mostly rose on Tuesday morning with colder weather and a forecast dip in wind power output lifting demand.

The day-ahead contract was up 0.97 pence at 37.50 p/therm by 1008 GMT.

The weekend contract was up 0.55 p at 37.55 p/therm.

Traders said although the system was over-supplied on Tuesday morning there were signals of an uptick in demand from Wednesday, buoying the day-ahead and weekend contracts.

Peak wind power generation is forecast at 11.9 gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday falling to 7.4 GW on Tuesday, Elexon data showed.

Average temperatures in Britain were forecast at 10 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, falling to 8.3C on Wednesday and dropping to 5C by the weekend, Refintiv Eikon data showed.

Analysts at Refinitiv forecast local distribution zone (LDZ) demand, which is primarily used for heating, at 185 million cubic metres (mcm) for Wednesday and 206 mcm for the weekend, up 10 mcm and 4 mcm respectively from the previous forecasts.

"Colder than previously assumed weather forecast for the end of November provided an important bullish driver," analysts at Refinitiv said in a daily research note.

Britain's gas system was oversupplied with demand forecast at 243.6 mcm and supply forecast at 255.6 mcm/day, National Grid data showed.

Further out on the curve prices fell.

The December contract was down 0.40 p at 37.75 p/therm.

The January contract was down 0.15 pence at 38.85 p/therm.

The day-ahead gas price at the Dutch TTF hub edged lower 0.07 euros at 13.45 per megawatt hour.

The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract was down 0.20 euro at 27.05 euros per tonne.