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Speculators in IMM yen futures reduced a net long position in the week ended February 10 from a record the prior week, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
The data from the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report on speculative positioning are used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
For example, extreme net long speculative positions often signal a decline in the currency, especially if that position conflicts with the positioning of the more influential commercial players. Speculators generally are trend followers seeking to pick a precise top or bottom in the market. Speculators in yen futures pared back the net long yen position to 58,630 contracts from 64,499 contracts a week earlier.
"It looks like there has been a capitulation of yen longs," said TJ Marta, currency analyst with Citibank in New York. Perhaps there was some speculation that Japan's Ministry of Finance would desist from ordering yen-weakening interventions ahead of last weekend's Group of Seven meeting in Florida. or that Japan would be directly criticised in the G7 communiqué, said Marta. But in the event, neither of these two scenarios transpired, he said.
Speculators in euro futures increased the net long position to 26,242 contracts in the week ended February 10 to its biggest since late January, from 20,446 contracts a week earlier.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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