The Ministry of Commerce has been under some pressure lately in light of the recent disappointing numbers for Pakistan’s exports. This comes at a time when the Ministry is close to submitting the next Trade Policy Framework (2015-2018), which is due sometime this year. One asks: how effective are these policies, and just how many of its stated goals did the Ministry of Commerce meet in its previous policy (2012-2015)?
One of the foremost targets mentioned in the Trade Policy Framework (2012-2015) was to bring cumulative exports over the three-year period to $95 billion. This is a far cry from where we are right now; Pakistan’s exports from the start of FY13 to the eight months ended February currently stands at $66 billion. No hefty calculations are required to discern that this number is way off course, lest there should be a miracle in the three months between now and the end of FY15.
Another pertinent mention in the report was the promotion of service sector exports, where Pakistan severely lags behind. The report said that the service sector contributes 54 percent to Pakistan’s economy, but service exports for 2011-2012 were a measly $5 billion in an $18.2 trillion global market.
Again, a lot was said on this front but the numbers don’t show much progress; it’s true that service exports have increased in absolute terms. But that is of little consequence considering the fact that there hasn’t been any significant improvement in services as a percentage of total exports.
What’s more is that, if the CSF numbers are subtracted from service exports, the data actually reveals a worsening of the situation; from FY10 to FY12, services formed 16 percent of total exports. And under the current policy, this number has gone down by 170 percentage points to 15 percent so far.
These are just two areas where the policy has failed a very superficial litmus test, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise if further research reveals even more inadequacies.
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