Its the provinces, stupid!

Buy yourself a treat if you already know that provinces managed to ditch the centre once again; chances are you are one of the few who do.
The outgoing fiscal year saw provinces post a combined fiscal deficit of Rs62 billion, against the budgeted surplus of Rs79.5 billion. This is the biggest differential since FY11; the differential between budgeted and actual amount stood around 27 percent in FY11 and FY12.
Perhaps this is why the federal government has kept its expectations quite low this time around. It has budgeted a combined provincial surplus of Rs23 billion for fiscal year 2014.
While BR Research will peruse provincial budgets later, when detailed documents are made available, it is pertinent to remind what the central bank said about the role of provinces in the economy.
In its third quarterly report on economy, the State Bank said that all provinces should be taken on board in the process of economic reforms "(from formulation to implementation), as their role in the economy has become significant after the introduction of fiscal devolution through the 18th amendment".
It even went as far as suggesting that provincial finance ministers should be considered to include while negotiating with the IMF, whenever that need arises. This is important because the "success of fiscal reforms will hinge on the performance of the provincial governments, as their share in overall revenues (as well as in expenditures) has increased," the SBP noted.
While the central banks monetary policy decisions may be untenable in the eyes of some analysts and business/political leaders, there cannot be any argument against its advice to focus on the provinces and their budgets.
It is the provinces that have to raise their own taxes; especially the tax on agriculture income, which may not be as important for increasing revenues but it is user-important to rope in the tax evaders from other sectors.
But there is another, more important reason for the media as well as the people in general to start focusing on provincial budgeting and overall economic policymaking.
In the post-devolution Pakistan, the fate of millions of Pakistanis lies in the hands of provinces; health, and education to say the least. The media and the public in general would do well to knock at the right doors instead of pinning hopes on the federal government alone.