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Markets

Rouble weakens after streak of outperformance versus EM peers

Published Updated

imageMOSCOW: The rouble lost ground on Tuesday, with analysts saying they had anticipated its decline once the global mood weakened, after recent outperformance by the Russian currency versus its emerging markets peers.

At 0745 GMT, the rouble weakened from multi-week highs seen on Monday, trading down 0.1 percent at 32.33 against the dollar and 0.3 percent down versus the euro at 43.17 .

This has left the rouble 0.2 percent weaker at 37.21 against the dollar-euro basket which the central bank uses to monitor the rouble's nominal exchange rate.

The weaker rouble reflected the broadly stronger dollar , but analysts at VTB Capital said in a note that the Russian currency had started to look "rich" relative to the emerging markets spectrum.

On Monday, the rouble traded some 3-4 percent stronger than the emerging markets forex average, with oil prices not very supportive for the rouble.

Oil slipped down below $110 per barrel of Brent crude for November delivery on Tuesday on easing worries over the Syrian chemical weapons crisis.

"Thus, we would be looking for opportunities to sell spikes in the rouble, which we think could well occur in the coming days, as the unlikely sharp move in the rouble of recent days fades out quickly," VTB analysts wrote in a note.

The rouble's decline on Tuesday, was in line with other emerging market currencies.

Most of the rouble's peers and many global markets weakened in anticipation of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meetings that starts later on Tuesday.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was down 0.5 percent at 1,429.7 points, following Asian stocks that traded in red and S&P futures which were also lower.

The rouble-traded index MICEX was down 0.2 percent at 1,467.4 points.

Markets have largely priced in the expected winding down of US stimulus policy, but a decision by the FOMC to delay the start of buying back government bonds could signal uncertainty about the US economy, analysts at BKS investment house in Moscow wrote in a morning note.

Weak Russian industrial output data for August also did not bode well for the Moscow markets, although most investors have become used to the country's economic growth underperforming this year.

Russian potash producer Uralkali continued to outperform on speculation about a possible stake sale by its core shareholder

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