"Australian miners' output is expected to lift only marginally, leaving the Brazilian giant, Vale, crucial to the overall recovery in supply," he said in a monthly outlook.
China reported its biggest daily jump in new COVID-19 cases in more than 10 months for Jan.13, underscoring the growing threat ahead of a major national holiday.
"Although the actual demand and the state of destocking are slower than before, the overall destocking (trend) is still maintained," they wrote in a note.
Mysteel consultancy's latest survey showed iron ore dispatched from Australia and Brazil fell for the second week over Dec. 7-13 by another 1 million tonnes from the prior week.
Pureplay coal exporters fell sharply, as well. New Hope Corp ended 2.7% lower, China-controlled Yancoal Australia shed 8.4%, and Whitehaven Coal lost about 6%.