OSLO: Nordic spot power prices are expected to fall by more than 5 euros as rising temperatures in the continent reduce costs and demand for imports there, analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon said.
The Nordic average day-ahead power or system price for Thursday delivery is expected to ease to 61.2 euros a megawatt-hour (MWh) from 66.9 euros on Wednesday.
"It's mainly because prices in Germany are expected to fall, reducing imports and limiting prices here," an Oslo-based Point Carbon analyst said, adding "We expect price coupling with Germany for many day hours tomorrow."
The average German baseload power price is expected to fall to 64 euros a MWh on EEX exchange from 72.1 for Wednesday, Point Carbon said.
The drop will come as rising temperatures in France are expected to reduce imports from Germany.
"In a way, a change for power demand in France is impacting the Nordic prices, but it's not the only factor," another analyst at Point Carbon said.
Swings in Nordic temperatures and wind power output have been other important factors in setting power prices.
The average temperatures in the Nordics were forecast to fall 2.1 degrees Celsius below normal on Thursday, boosting demand by some 360 MW in the region where many households use electricity for heating.
This was going to be partly offset by combined wind power output in Denmark and Sweden rising by 190 MW, Point Carbon said.
FORWARD PRICES
The most-traded Nordic contract for baseload power delivery in the first quarter were steady at 40.90 euros a MWh by 1030 GMT, with the market trying to grasp the impact from the latest weather outlook.
The latest forecasts showed south of Scandinavia would see increased precipitation and milder weather, but it was to remain rather cold in the remaining area at least until the end of the next week, Georg Muller, a meteorologist at Point carbon, said.
Along the forward curve, the Nordic contract for baseload power delivery through all of 2013 slipped by 15 cents to 38 euros a MWh, in step with falling coal and carbon prices.
Coal API2 2013 futures fell 65 cents to $94.35 a tonne, down from $97 last week, dragged lower by weaker prices for German power, where the 2013 baseload contract fell to a new 2.5-year low of 45.66 euros a MWh on Tuesday.
Prices for benchmark European Union carbon permits , an important factor for fossil power costs, also eased by 0.14 euros to 6.70 euros a tonne.
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