US natural gas futures on Monday rose along with oil futures, bouncing more than 3 percent despite forecasts for warmer US weather and lower demand for gas than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which closed on Friday at the lowest level since March 2016 for a second day in a row, bounced up 5.9 cents, or 3.5%, to $1.743 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:40 a.m. EST (1440 GMT).
US crude futures rose almost $2 a barrel, their first increase in seven sessions, as hopes of a production cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) offset worries the coronavirus will hurt economic growth and reduce oil demand. Big price swings for gas futures in recent weeks, caused at-the-money implied volatility for the front-month to jump more than 30% over the past week to 46.8%, its highest since December.
Some analysts think the market will consolidate near its current level as speculators cut net short positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange for a third week in a row. Since hitting an eight-month high of $2.905 per mmBtu in early November, gas futures have collapsed 40% as record production and mild winter weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely.
With the coming of spring, Refinitiv, a data provider, projected average demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 110.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 108.8 bcfd next week. That is much lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Friday of 114.7 bcfd this week and 115.8 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to fall to a near two-week low of 8.3 bcfd due to a decline at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana, down from 8.9 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv.
That compares with an average of 8.9 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on January 31. Traders are watching gas flows to US LNG export plants for declines after customers canceled a couple of cargoes for the spring as low prices in Europe and Asia made it uneconomic for some customers to lift cargoes.
US producers have been counting on LNG exports to maintain their spectacular growth in coming years to absorb record amounts of gas associated with oil production from shale formations like the Permian in West Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. US LNG exports jumped 53% in 2018 and 68% in 2019, and are expected to rise 33% in 2020, according to federal energy projections. In the spot market, next-day gas prices in Chicago fell to their lowest since 1998 as mild weather reduced heating demand.
Comments
Comments are closed.