Pakistan economy to remain 'business as usual' even in 2047?

Pakistan's economy will 'remain business as usual' even in 2047 unless development of human resources and structural reforms become top priorities of the government. In his opening remarks, Vice President World Bank (WB) Hartwig Schafer at the launch of WB report titled "Pakistan @100 Shaping the Future; Investing in People" said Pakistan urgently needs to invest in its people. He said that Pakistan's economy has the potential to grow at 8 percent but there is need to control the population growth rate.
There will be no difference in terms of economic future of the country in 2047 if the country's population growth rate continues at the current pace, he said adding that Pakistan needs to invest in the people and must promote the knowledge-based economy. He further stated that many countries in the world were less developed compared to Pakistan but have progressed very rapidly by focusing on human development. The WB vice president also emphasised the need for transparency and accountably as well as free economy with less interference by the government.
He said that Pakistan is standing at crossroads from where one path can lead the country to 8 percent growth rate and take the country to upper income group while other path will take the country nowhere. He said if Pakistan wants to move on path to development, it needs to develop human resources, learn from experiences of other countries, increase productivity, provide opportunities to the private sector and ensure free market.
Schafer further stated that enhanced women participation in the economy as well as regional connectivity and trade must be a priority and stated that Pakistan has the potential to become middle income country by 2047.
Vice President JICA, Takao Toda appreciated priority of the present government for human development and stated that his country (Japan) also achieved prosperity by paying attention on human development. He said that his country is working on various development projects through JICA. Those born today will be 28 years of age in 2047 and "we have to ensure education, employment and food security. " Pakistan was rapidly growing in 60s and it growth rate was much better as compared to various other countries, he recalled.
The British deputy high commissioner stated that Pakistan has to undertake reforms and broaden the tax base and provide skill education to the youth.
Minister for Planning, Development and Reform Khusro Bukhtiar acknowledged the importance of human development and stated that steps are being taken to increase direct investment and take structural reforms to move on the path of sustainable development.
The government is also working on renewable energy projects for energy security. The minister said that population growth rate will be reduced to 1.8 percent from existing rate of 2.4 percent reported in the WB report, adding that Pakistan has the potential to increase investment to 25-30 percent.
The minister said that Pakistan is going to become hub of trade and foreign investment due to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Belt Road Initiative (BRI) and its geographical location.
The report recommended the essential reforms Pakistan needs now are to accelerate and sustain growth. This means increasing and improving human capital investment, boosting productivity, promoting social and environmental sustainability, ensuring good governance, and leveraging its location to connect more with neighbors and the world beyond, says the report.
The forward-looking report argues that Pakistan's greatest asset is its people - a young population of 208 million. This large population can transform into a demographic dividend that drives economic growth. To achieve that, Pakistan must act fast and strategically to: (i) manage population growth and improve maternal health, (ii) improve early childhood development, focusing on nutrition and health, and (iii) boost spending on education and skills for all, according to the report.
"Because the next generation is meeting only 40 percent of its potential, it means that Pakistan is foregoing much of its economic growth, but this can change if women's potential is unlocked," says Annette Dixon, World Bank Vice President for Human Development. "Accelerating and sustaining Pakistan's growth over a 30-year period is ambitious, but possible," says Illango Patchamuthu, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan. "Many other countries have achieved economic transformations within a generation with the right set of policies," he said.
The World Bank is committed to working with the government of Pakistan and other stakeholders in the country to advance the necessary reforms, so that Pakistan can significantly increase growth and sustain it, so it is an upper middle-income country by the time it celebrates its centenary, he said.