The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Thursday cut sharply its forecast for a global cocoa surplus in 2017/18 partly reflecting stronger-than-expected grindings. The inter-governmental body saw a marginal surplus of just 10,000 tonnes in the 2017/18 season (October/September), compared with a previous projection of 105,000 tonnes issued on February 28.
World grindings in 2017/18 were seen at 4.53 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 4.49 million and 3.0 percent higher than the prior season's 4.40 million. "Demand continues to remain strong in the Asian markets and major producing countries in West Africa are also undertaking more processing activities," the ICCO said.
World production in 2017/18 was downwardly revised to 4.59 million from a previous forecast of 4.64 million and now 3.3 percent below the prior season's 4.74 million. The ICCO said output in Ghana, Indonesia and Ecuador would be lower than previously expected. Ghana's total production was seen falling to 880,000 tonnes, down from the around 900,000 tonnes previously anticipated and well below the prior season's 970,000 tonnes. "Several factors have been put forward to explain the decline in (Ghana) production. These include, among others, inadequate rainfall and ageing cocoa tree stock, mostly diseased and unproductive," the ICCO said.
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