The US corn crop is off to one of its best-ever starts, but the stellar conditions do not offer any guarantee of yield potential down the road. The US Department of Agriculture's statistics agency rated 79 percent of the country's corn in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, considerably better than last year's 65 percent.
Industry analysts expected this number at 72 percent, so the high crop ratings may sting the corn bulls. Chicago Board of Trade July corn futures were leaning to the downside as overnight trading began late on Tuesday after sagging 6 cents earlier that day. The 2018 crop has tied with 1994's for the second-highest initial condition score in records back to 1986. Only the 1991 crop started out better at 81 percent.
But the 1991 harvest was terrible, beginning too wet and ending too dry. Some other years with high initial ratings did not turn a great performance, either. Some 77 percent of the corn was good or excellent early on in 2012, but nearly a quarter of the yield potential was eventually wiped out by a historic drought. In 2007, the initial score of 78 percent gave way to an extremely average crop. However, favourable weather can obviously maintain those crop conditions through the season, as was the case with the exceptional 1994 harvest.
Right now, the 2018 season leans in the more favourable direction. Despite the cold start and early planting delays, warm May weather likely bolstered corn conditions. In No. 2 producer Illinois, some 83 percent of the corn is rated good or excellent. The state is headed for its warmest May on record since 1895, a drastic shift from last month, its second-coldest April in history.
A year ago, Illinois corn conditions were a measly 52 percent, but a record state yield was eventually realized, largely owing to a remarkably cool August. As of Sunday, the other top four growers, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota, all boast condition scores above 80 percent. Weather forecasts as of late Tuesday suggest crop ratings could remain elevated through early June. The midsummer-like heat will fade by the end of the week, and rain showers are expected in most areas across the Corn Belt. Through the first two weeks of June, an extreme heat wave or dry spell appears very unlikely.
Crop conditions do not suggest obvious signs of crop health weakness in any major growing regions in the Corn Belt. Only two states, minor growers Pennsylvania and Texas, have poor-to-very poor ratings in the double-digits.
But Plains states, centered around Kansas, need to remain alert into next month as extremely warm temperatures are likely to persist. The precipitation forecast is somewhat mixed, but there is a decent chance that many corn-heavy areas could miss out on the moisture. US corn pollinates and fills grain primarily during July and August, which will be the most important weather months in determining the yield.
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