Trump, Xi and the world at stake

The red carpet at Joint Base Andrews was one hundred feet long. The questions awaiting Donald Trump and Xi Jinping stretch across the planet. A flyover and handshake made powerful photographs, but neither will protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz, factories waiting for rare earth magnets, or the people of Taiwan. The visit will be measured by what follows.

Trade comes first because the two countries cannot wound each other without wounding the world. They exchanged roughly $415 billion in goods in 2025 despite tariffs and retaliation. Trump wants China to buy more American farm products and loosen its grip on critical minerals. Xi wants the tariffs and restrictions on advanced technology removed. Their trade truce now runs to January 10. Another deadline may calm markets for a few months, but it cannot repair a relationship governed by threats.

Rare earths show why Washington cannot dictate the terms. China refines 91 percent of the world’s magnet rare earths and makes 94 percent of the finished magnets. They power vehicles, industrial motors, data centres and weapons. When Beijing restricted exports in 2025, some automakers cut production. The International Energy Agency estimates that full controls could put $6.5 trillion in annual production outside China at risk. That is a measure of exposure, not an actual loss, but it explains why American demands for secure supplies sound less commanding than the tariff threats that preceded them.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026