Australia, NZ dollars pause for cues on US, RBA rate outlooks

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars stood still on Friday ahead of a US jobs report that could shift the dial on the chance of a rate hike there, while bonds suffered a setback as oil prices rebounded.

Investors were also looking ahead to a board meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on August 11, widely expected to see rates held at 4.35% but also reiterate a warning that further tightening might be needed.

All 37 analysts polled by Reuters tip a steady outcome, while 27 expected no increase for the rest of the year either.

The central bank has hiked three times since February in an effort to bear down on stubborn inflation.

“Our central case is that the slowdown in economic growth, weakened further by the cooling housing market, will see the jobs market loosen further,” said Paul Bloxham, head of Australian economics at HSBC.

“This will see core inflation head to target fast enough that the RBA will not lift its cash rate any further in coming quarters,” he added.

“We see the downswing in growth being sufficient that the RBA begins to cut its cash rate in H2 2027.

Markets imply just a 3% chance of a rate rise next week, and around a 16% probability for the RBA’s September meeting.

That rises to 44% for November, reflecting the risk the third-quarter inflation report out in late October could be alarming enough to force a tightening.

With the RBA seen on hold, the Aussie is vulnerable should the US Federal Reserve choose to raise rates at its next meeting on September 16. Markets imply a 55% chance of a hike, which could change depending on the July payrolls report later in the session.

Thus, a solid or strong report would likely pressure the Aussie, while a weak outcome could see it test resistance again.

That uncertainty kept the Aussie flat at $0.7030, having eased almost 0.4% overnight having failed to clear the week’s top at $0.7069.

Support now lies at $0.6984 and $0.6922.

Australian bonds saw the week’s gains wiped out as oil rebounded and 10-year yields rose 5 basis points to 4.979%.

The kiwi dollar was steady at $0.5863, after dipping 0.3% overnight.

It also stalled short of the week’s high at $0.5907, while support comes in at $0.5850 and $0.5762.