This is apropos a letter to the Editor carried by the newspaper yesterday. Turkey is not Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, or Syria. It is a major NATO power with a large population, deep military traditions, a growing defense industry, advanced drones, naval reach, missile development, and strategic depth. In any conventional comparison, Turkey is not an easy target.
Its manpower, geography, industrial base, and NATO membership make a direct Israeli attempt to “destroy” or subjugate Turkey almost impossible. Turkey has no shared border with Israel, and any major war would require complex operations through Syria, the Mediterranean, or proxy corridors. This is not a battlefield where Israel can easily repeat its air campaigns against weaker or fragmented enemies.
Yet Israel’s confidence comes from a different calculation. It knows that conventional imbalance can be overturned by nuclear deterrence. Israel’s undeclared nuclear capability is the hidden card behind its regional posture. Even if Turkey is stronger in manpower, tanks, drones, ships, and strategic depth, Israel’s nuclear ambiguity gives it a psychological edge. It tells every regional rival: you may hurt Israel, but you cannot safely push Israel to existential panic. This is the dangerous “madness card” — the belief that if Israel feels cornered, it may escalate beyond normal rules.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
The writer is a former Press Secretary to the President, An ex-Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France, a former MD, SRBC Macomb, Detroit, Michigan
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