Pakistan inflation returns to double digits at 10.9% in April 2026

Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 10.9% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in April 2026, as shown by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Friday, a reading higher than the Ministry of Finance’s estimate of 8-9%.

The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 7.3% in March 2026. The CPI stood at 0.3% in April 2025.

On month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.5% in April 2026 as compared to an increase of 1.2% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.8% in April 2025.

During the first ten months of the fiscal year, inflation stood at 6.19% against 4.73% recorded in the same period last year.

CPI inflation urban increased by 11.1% on year-on-year basis in April 2026, as compared to an increase of 7.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.5% in April 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.7% in April 2026 as compared to an increase of 1.3% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.7% in April 2025.

CPI inflation rural increased by 10.6% on year-on-year basis in April 2026, as compared to an increase of 7.2% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.1% observed in April 2025.

On month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.1% in April 2026 as compared to an increase of 1% in the previous month and a decrease of 1% in April 2025.

In its Monthly Economic Update & Outlook, March 2026, the Finance Division had anticipated inflation to remain in single digits, within the range of 8-9% for April 2026.

“Amid ongoing supply chain constraints [due to geopolitical tension in Middle East], inflation is anticipated to remain within the range of 8-9% for April 2026,” the ministry said in its latest Monthly Economic Update & Outlook April 2026 published on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Insight Securities Head of Research Muhammad Shahroz said in a commentary that headline inflation could stand at 10.1% for April 2026.

“The [expected] increase is mainly driven by low base effect coupled with elevated food and housing index. On a month-on-month basis, inflation is expected to inch up by 1.7%. This surge is primarily driven by higher retail fuel prices coupled with elevated LPG prices,“ he said.

The rising inflation rate agreed State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to increase its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11.5% this week. This was the first hike in the past three years.