KARACHI: The country is expected to experience a warmer-than-normal February, with limited rainfall in southern regions and relatively wetter conditions in the north, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s February 2026 outlook.
In Sindh, southern Punjab and southeastern Balochistan, rainfall is expected to remain near normal but subdued, while above-normal temperatures may lead to soil moisture stress and continued water shortages, particularly in agricultural areas.
Limited rainfall in the southern plains could worsen air quality and smog, although dry and warmer weather will support post-harvest handling and storage of rice. Fog may persist in parts of Punjab and adjoining northern Sindh, affecting road and air traffic, while vector-borne disease risk is expected to remain low due to winter conditions.
At the national level, ENSO is expected to shift from a marginally negative phase to neutral, while the Indian Ocean Dipole will remain neutral, supporting near- to slightly above-normal rainfall across most of the country. Above-normal rainfall is likely in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Punjab, while Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab are expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
No widespread extreme rainfall anomalies are forecast, though localized above-normal precipitation may occur in mountainous areas due to orographic effects. Probabilistic models indicate above-normal rainfall in central and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan, and below-normal rainfall in northern parts of Gilgit-Baltistan.
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Above-normal temperatures are forecast nationwide, with the highest departures over Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir, while warmer-than-normal conditions are also likely in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northeastern Sindh. The expected pattern is likely to benefit Rabi crops in central and northern Pakistan, particularly in rain-fed areas, while southern regions may continue to face soil moisture stress.
Wetter conditions in the north may improve local water availability, whereas southern areas are likely to remain under water stress. Snowfall and rainfall in northern and western regions during active spells may increase the risk of avalanches, flash floods and hailstorms.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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