Oil dips as investors assess Iran supply, Venezuelan export resumption

LONDON: Oil prices fell slightly on Monday after Iran said it had total control following the biggest anti-government demonstrations in years, easing some concerns over supply, while investors also weighed efforts to resume oil exports from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures lost 28 cents, or 0.44%, to $63.06 a barrel by 1402 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.78 a barrel, down 34 cents, or 0.58%.

“Lower European equity markets and lack of additional supply disruptions is moderately weighing on oil prices, following a strong rally at the end of last week,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Both benchmarks rose more than 3% last week in their biggest such rise since October, as OPEC producer Iran’s clerical establishment stepped up its crackdown on the biggest demonstrations since 2022.

TRUMP WARNS OF INTERVENTION IN TEHRAN

The situation in Iran is “under total control” after widespread demonstrations over the weekend, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday in remarks translated to English.

U.S. President Donald Trump had warned of possible military intervention in the event of a violent crackdown on the Iranian protests.

Trump is expected to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for Iran, a U.S. official told Reuters.

VENEZUELA SET TO RESUME OIL EXPORTS SOON

Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, as Trump said last week the government in Caracas is set to turn over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.

That has set off a race among oil companies to find tankers and prepare operations to ship the crude safely from vessels and dilapidated Venezuelan ports, four sources familiar with the operations said.

In a White House meeting on Friday, Trafigura said its first vessel should load in the next week. Investors are also watching the risk of disruptions in supply from Russia, amid Ukraine’s attacks targeting its energy facilities and the prospects of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian energy.

Oil prices are likely to drift lower this year as a wave of supply creates a market surplus, although geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to drive volatility, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday.

The investment bank maintained its 2026 average price forecasts of $56/$52 per barrel for Brent/WTI, and expects Brent/WTI prices to bottom at $54/50 in the last quarter as OECD inventories build up.