Indian rupee may see marginal relief on dollar pullback, lower US yields

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee could get some relief on Tuesday following a dip in the dollar and a modest fall in US yields, though bankers said currency still faces a daily demand–supply imbalance.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee is set to open in the 90.20-90.24 range against the US dollar, after settling at 90.2775 on Monday.

The rupee has recorded four consecutive sessions of losses and is down more than 1% in just more than two weeks, pressured by importer hedging at the start of the year amid muted foreign equity inflows.

Negative newsflow around the US–India trade deal has added another layer of pressure on the rupee.

The US could raise tariffs on India if New Delhi does not meet Washington’s demand to curb purchases of Russian oil, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday.

From a flows perspective, the rupee remains under pressure and a drift back to 91 level “looks more likely than not,” a currency trader at a bank said.

“While the RBI almost certainly will lean against the move to, the direction itself doesn’t seem to be in question.”

The Reserve Bank of India has been actively intervening during bouts of rupee weakness.

The central bank initially defended the 90 level but stepped aside due to persistent dollar demand.