Yuan extends rally to 14-month peak as market expects break below 7 to the dollar

HONG KONG: The Chinese yuan hit a fresh 14-month high against the US dollar on Monday, extending a recent rally as analysts said the currency could breach the closely watched 7.0 threshold on positive catalysts.

The yuan strengthened to as much as 7.0650 against the dollar, the most robust level since October 11, 2024, before trading largely flat by 0245 GMT.

The offshore yuan traded at 7.071 yuan per dollar, up about 0.04% in Asian trade.

Monday’s strength extended the yuan’s longest string of monthly gains against the dollar in four years, as strong stocks, year-end exporter conversions and the prospect of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve bolstered the currency, analysts say.

The recent accelerated pace of appreciation has reignited market enthusiasm for going long on the yuan, “which could possibly push the yuan to break through the 7 level,” said Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China.

“Still, it’s uncertain if the yuan can stabilize below the 7 handle” and markets should not bet on one-sided moves, he added.

Markets will be watching for policies on exchange-rate stabilization during the Central Economic Work Conference this month to assess the People’s Bank of China’s stance, he wrote in his WeChat blog.

Before the market opened on Monday, the People’s Bank of China set its midpoint rate at 7.0759 per dollar, its strongest since October 14, 2024, which was 50 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate.

The spot yuan is allowed to trade 2% on either side of the fixed midpoint each day.

On the data front, an official PMI survey on Sunday showed factory activity shrank for an eighth straight month, while a private report on Monday confirmed the downtrend.

“The economy faces several challenges, but the downside growth risks look manageable,” analysts at ANZ said in a note.

“Sentiment has shifted more favourably towards CNY … We forecast CNY to appreciate to 6.95 against the USD by the end of 2026. The risk is if the authorities allow a more rapid appreciation, resulting in CNY strengthening by more than our forecast.”

 Elsewhere, the dollar began the month on the back foot as investors ramped up bets on a US rate cut this month. Traders are now pricing in an 87% chance that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points when it meets next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.