Gold breaks $4,100 to hit high on trade jitters, rate-cut optimism

Gold broke through $4,100 per ounce for the first time on Monday, hitting another record high on renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, while silver also rose to an all-time high.

Spot gold was up 2.2% to $4,106.48 per ounce, as of 01:47 p.m. ET (1747 GMT), after hitting a record $4,116.77.

U.S. gold futures for December settled 3.3% higher at $4,133.

Gold has climbed 56% this year and scaled the $4,000 milestone for the first time last week, driven by factors including geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and robust central bank buying.

“Gold could easily continue its upward momentum. We could see prices north of $5,000 by the end of 2026,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

Steady central bank purchases, firm ETF inflows, U.S.-China trade tensions and the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates are providing structural support for the market, Streible added.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with China on Friday, ending an uneasy truce between the world’s two largest economies.

Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October and a 100% chance for December.

Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale now expect gold to reach $5,000 in 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its forecast to an average of $4,488 next year.

“This rally has legs in our view, but a near-term correction would be healthier for a longer-term uptrend,” said Suki Cooper, global head, commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank.

Spot silver rose 3.1% to $51.82, touching a record high of $52.12 earlier in the session, buoyed by the same factors supporting gold and spot market tightness.

Technical indicators show both are overbought, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 80 for gold and 83 for silver.

Platinum rose 3.9% to $1,648.25, and palladium gained 5.2% to $1,478.94.