Corn slips on expectations of increased US plantings, export demand caps losses

CANBERRA: Chicago corn futures edged lower on Monday amid expectations that US farmers will respond to a recent price rally by planting more, but strong US export demand limited losses.

Corn, soy rise on South America output concerns

Wheat futures also slipped, with snow cover protecting US crops from damage from cold weather. Soybeans rose slightly.

Fundamentals

• The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0.1% to $5.04-1/2 a bushel by 0140 GMT after climbing to $5.14 on Friday, highest since August 2023.

• CBOT wheat dropped 0.2% to $6.02-3/4 a bushel, while soybeans added 0.1% to $10.57-3/4 bushel.

• Corn and wheat futures are up around 10% so far this year on expectations of falling stockpiles and tighter supply. Soybeans have risen around 5%, but huge anticipated production in Brazil limited gains.

• Prices have benefited from a weakening US dollar that makes US farm exports more competitive in global markets. The greenback was at its lowest since early December 2024 against a basket of major currencies.

• Export demand for US corn has been strong, with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday reporting weekly sales of 1.45 million metric tons, toward the high end of analysts’ estimates.

• However, traders think the USDA will project large US corn plantings and yields for the 2025 crop at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum this week.

• Agricultural lender CoBank projected last week that US corn plantings would rise by around 4% this year as farmers hunt for profit, while that of wheat and soybean would fall.

• Rain forecasts in Argentina’s farm belt and parts of Brazil this week also sucked momentum out from corn and soybeans by improving growing conditions.

• Speculators have built a large net long position in CBOT corn and they have historically been in no hurry to unwind such positions, wrote Reuters columnist Karen Braun.

• However, speculators remain bearish on wheat and soybeans.

• In wheat, the condition of crops in France improved slightly but was still close to last year’s four-year low, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed.