SINGAPORE/LONDON: The global liquefied natural gas market could remain tight this year as rising European demand intensifies competition with Asia and offsets new North American supply at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump’s energy policies and tariffs will also be keenly watched.
Europe’s LNG demand is forecast to grow by more than 14 million metric tons to 101 million tons in 2025, consultancy Energy Aspects said, as the continent refills gas storage facilities and replaces supplies lost after a Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal expired at the end of last year.
“Europe’s need to refill storage, after a colder winter and additional Russian supply cuts, will see it compete harder for cargoes than last year,” said ICIS analyst Alex Froley.
Europe’s storage facilities are some 17 billion cubic metres (bcm) lower than at the same time in 2024 while the loss of Russian gas flows via Ukraine has removed 15 bcm per year of supply, he estimated.
“There is enough flexible LNG in the market to cover this, but it comes at a price,” Froley said.
Global LNG: Asian spot LNG little changed on ample stocks, mild weather
Asia growth slows
Higher spot prices could slow Asia’s LNG demand growth to just above 2% this year, according to Energy Aspects and Kpler, down from 6% in 2024 when heatwaves boosted cooling needs, putting 2025 demand at around 280 million tons.
Rabobank forecasts average Asia spot LNG prices of $12.65 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) this year, up from $11.97/mmBtu in 2024.
LNG shipments to top importer China are seen reaching new highs of 79 million to 86 million tons, as long-term contracts kick in and new terminals are commissioned.
James Taverner, S&P Global Commodity Insights senior director of global gas and LNG, expects only modest demand growth in price sensitive south and southeast Asian markets as oil prices could trend lower.
Trump drives North American supply
Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG phase 3 in the United States, LNG Canada, Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul LNG and the Mauritania-Senegal Greater Tortue LNG are projects adding to global supply this year.
While nameplate capacity for the first three is large, they will only reach maximum output later this year or next, said Energy Aspects analyst Jake Horslen.
Global LNG exports are expected to rise 18 million tons to 410.6 million tons in 2025, with Europe absorbing most of the new supply and suppressing demand growth elsewhere, he said.
Trump has already ended a moratorium on new LNG export permits, and sources have suggested he could also make renewals easier.
He has also threatened tariffs on goods from top LNG importer China, with analysts saying Beijing could retaliate by targeting U.S. LNG, as it did in 2019.
“China could take more from the Middle East and Australia, while more U.S. flows could go to Europe,” said ICIS’ Froley.
Trump’s planned tariffs could also harm U.S. LNG projects by increasing costs of raw materials like steel, machine parts, and modular liquefaction trains, said Kpler analyst Go Katayama.
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