MUMBAI: Indian government bond yields are likely to dip marginally at the start of the penultimate week of 2023, as underlying sentiment remains positive, while US yields were lower on stronger bets on policy pivot.
The 10-year benchmark bond yield is expected to trade in the 7.14-7.19% range on Monday, after closing at 7.1624% on Friday, a trader with a private bank said.
The yield plunged 11 basis points last week, the biggest decline in 10 months.
“All the factors have turned bullish, and till the time the 10-year US yield sustains below the 4% mark, our benchmark bond yield may remain below the crucial 7.19%-7.20% zone,” the trader said.
Domestic bond yields fell sharply last week, tracking a plunge in US yields.
The 10-year US yield dropped 32 bps, its biggest fall in over a year, after the Federal Reserve signalled that policy tightening is over and projected three rate cuts in 2024.
Markets are now pricing in a 72% probability of the Fed cutting rates in March and a 95% probability of a cut in May. Still, the shorter-tenor US yields rose, as a Fed official dampened expectations of an imminent interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.
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New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview that the Fed is not really talking about rate cuts right now and it is “premature” to speculate.
Increasing possibilities of Fed rate cuts have also led to speculations of a similar move by the Reserve Bank of India, which maintained a cautious tone while delivering its policy decision earlier in December.
The minutes of the RBI policy are due this week, and the focus would remain on the thinking of central bank members about interest rate trajectory in 2024.
Tata Mutual Funds expects a rate cut from the RBI around June, after the results of the general elections.
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