BENGALURU: Oil prices rose more than a dollar per barrel on Friday, buoyed by growing evidence of supply shortages in the coming months and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine that could further hit supplies.
Brent crude futures rose $1.43, or 1.8%, to settle at $81.07 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.42, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.07 a barrel, the highest since April 25.
“The oil market is starting to slowly price in a looming supply crunch as it is on track for its fourth week of price gains,” Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said.
“Global supplies are starting to tighten and that could accelerate dramatically in the coming weeks. Increased war risk could also impact prices,” Flynn said.
Russia hit Ukrainian food export facilities for a fourth day in a row on Friday and practised seizing ships in the Black Sea, in an escalation of tensions in the region since Moscow’s withdrawal this week from a UN-brokered safe sea corridor agreement.
In the US, crude inventories have fallen, amid a jump in crude exports and higher refinery utilisation, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Earlier on Monday, the EIA had forecast that US oil and gas production was likely to decline in August for the first time this year, adding to concerns of supply tightness.
Separately on Friday, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told Reuters that current actions by OPEC+ to support the oil market were sufficient for now and the group was “only a phone call away” if any further steps were needed.
Meanwhile, investors welcomed stimulus measures designed to reinvigorate China’s sluggish economy. Data from the world’s second-biggest oil consumer suggests the government’s 5% annual growth target will be missed.
On Friday, Chinese authorities unveiled plans to help boost sales of automobiles and electronics.
“We estimate the supply and demand balance for oil in the $75-$95 range for 2024, as limited OPEC+ supply and good demand in the US is offset somewhat by weaker-than-expected demand in China as its economic recovery continues to lag,” Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Management, said.
Next week, preliminary purchasing manager surveys from S&P Global will be key for investors trying to understand changing global demand, Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank Asset Management, said.
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