Another lost decade?

While economic despondency is really high and political consensus extremely low these days, it is important to step back and look at things in a historical context to draw important lessons. Almost every decade since partition, Pakistan’s economy and political transitions have not mixed well. Some elected governments were able to get the economy going, but then they were taken out inorganically. Part of the reason why the military dictatorships delivered comparatively higher GDP growth was because they were able to reduce political instability. But eventually the illegitimacy of their tenure caught up with them.

It can be argued that political stability, if attained in an organic manner, can provide continuity and, therefore, become a driving force in economic growth and development. Exactly a decade ago, the political handoff of power from PPP to PML-N via electoral means had raised hopes that if political maturity continued, it would reduce the costly distractions and help the economy to come on the right track. Political consensus was needed back then to tackle challenges of terrorism and power outages.

While those two challenges were largely taken care of, the political events leading up to the 2018 elections turned back the clock on political stability. Still, a political transition took place, and the PTI government came to enjoy considerable political capital at the center and in the provinces. The level of institutional support enjoyed by the third political force seemed unprecedented, giving it an unparalleled platform to introduce deep reforms in different areas of governance and economy to turn things around.

That opportunity was wasted as ex-PM Khan seemed more keen on putting opposition leaders behind bars instead of developing political consensus to legislate reforms that could steer public sector and the economy in the right direction. As all good things must come to an end, the ‘one page’ institutional mantra became a drag within a couple of years. Eventually there was a public falling out last year and those once in love became at daggers drawn. The PDM opposition showed opportunism and came into power.

Now the boot is on the other foot. Despite being terribly unable to contain the economic freefall which it inherited last year in April, the Shehbaz government has remained confident of staying in power, with the potential to last beyond its constitutional expiry date in August. Despite suffering the state’s wrath not too long ago, the incumbents seem to be high on schadenfreude,witnessing the proverbial axe fall on the PTI. Only that this time around, the fallout has led to an unabashed urgency to cut things down to size.

Sadly, this cycle of revengeful actions and collusive reactions is reminiscent of the nineties, potentially seeding another lost decade. While there is no party that can go blame-free in this conflict, they must all face an increasingly painful reality: not only are there massive human-capital-development challenges that are exacerbating inequalities, the political system is not inclusive at all for a youthful country with nearly a quarter billion population. The window to realize the ‘demographic dividend’ is still half open. But if the political class did not find a collective way forward, the darkest days may still be ahead.