NEW YORK: The dollar edged back from a 16-month high on Thursday as traders assessed whether the US currency’s recent surge, fueled by diverging central bank tightening expectations amid surging inflation around the globe, had gone too far.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, reached its highest since mid-July 2020 on Wednesday at 96.226, but was last down 0.146% at 95.647.
“At this point it really feels like we’re consolidating around near-term spikes for the dollar,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management. “The dollar has had a full rally and now the market is going to step back an assess if indeed the inflation theme continues at the pace that everybody thinks it will.”
“If that’s true, then there’s nothing stopping it, but I think if the numbers start to print a little cooler as we go forward, you’ll definitely see a bit of a dollar pullback across the board.”
Recent US data showed inflation running in October at its hottest since 1990, while retail sales numbers topped forecasts, leading the market to price in earlier rate hikes by the Federal Reserve than had been anticipated, driving strength in the greenback.
“The sustainability of the current dollar strength beyond the next few months looks far from certain,” said Luc Luyet, FX strategist at Pictet Wealth Management.
“Market expectations of the Fed are starting to be particularly hawkish, suggesting limited tailwinds for the US dollar going forward from that factor.”
The euro, rose 0.32% to $1.13545, bouncing off of a 16-month low hit on Wednesday below $1.13. Sterling, which jumped 0.5% against the greenback on Wednesday after data showing rising inflation in Britain last month piled pressure on the Bank of England to hike rates at its meeting next month, gave back some gains and was last down 0.08% at $1.3477.
The New Zealand dollar rose 0.31% to $0.7020 after a central bank survey showed near-term inflation is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. Elsewhere, Turkey’s lira shed another 3.3% to above 11 per dollar after the central bank cut rates by 100 basis points to 15%, even in the face of inflation near 20% and the Turkish currency hurtling southwards.
The lira has lost around 11.5% of its value this month amid President Tayyip Erdogan’s renewed criticism of interest rates and calls for stimulus despite the risks. It was last at 10.955, having earlier hit a record low of 11.30 per dollar.
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