Dollar set to end five-week win streak as risk sentiment rebounds

NEW YORK/LONDON: The dollar edged lower against a basket of major currencies on Friday, on track to break its five-week winning streak, as global risk appetite rebounded, reducing demand for the safe-haven currency.

Global stock markets have rallied this week as fears about a stagflationary economy have been eased by forecast-beating corporate earnings in the United States.

Unexpectedly strong US retail sales data for September also boosted sentiment. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month, versus expectations of a 0.2% decline, helped in part by higher prices.

Higher prices help to boost US retail sales in September

"The risk appetite here remains really, really strong for the time being," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management.

"That's helping the high beta currencies like the pound, the euro and the Aussie, simply because the market is feeling much more positive," he said.

The dollar index firmed after the retail sales data, but then trended lower and was down 0.19% for the week, after appreciating for the previous five weeks. The dollar was last down 0.106% at 93.941, after having hit a one-year high of 94.563 on Tuesday.

Sterling rose 0.69% to $1.3765, its highest since Sept. 17, while the euro edged up 0.02% to $1.1601 after touching $1.1624 on Thursday for the first time since Sept. 4.

The risk-sensitive Aussie dollar added 0.01% to $0.7416, having climbed to $0.7439 earlier in the session. New Zealand's dollar jumped 0.42% to $0.7065, extending Thursday's 1% surge.

The Japanese yen was the biggest loser, dropping to as low as 114.46 yen per dollar, its weakest since October 2018. The yen is a safe-haven currency and has been knocked by the rebound in sentiment including in Asia.

The dollar was last up 0.42% against the yen at 114.15 yen.

The greenback had rallied against its major peers since early September on expectations the US central bank would tighten monetary policy more quickly than previously expected amid an improving economy and surging energy prices.

Minutes of the Fed's September meeting confirmed this week that a tapering of stimulus is all but certain to start this year, although policymakers are sharply divided over inflation and what they should do about it.

Dollar rally pauses as risk appetite improves

Money markets are currently pricing in about 50/50 odds of a 25 basis point rate hike by July.

Analysts said investors who were long dollars had been squeezed out of their positions in the past few days, and inflation data did not support a further rise in the currency.

"The lack of any upside surprise in US CPI (consumer price inflation) data and confirmation of existing expectations on Fed tapering in the minutes provided no catalyst for additional USD buying and hence the sell-off," said MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny.

In cryptocurrency markets, the price of bitcoin topped $60,000 for the first time in six months and was not far from its record high on bets US regulators will approve a bitcoin futures exchange traded fund.