Covid keeps rising

The more you listen to experts, the more you know Pakistan has not reached the peak of the second wave. Of late, various government officials have been seen finding solace in the fact that the positivity rate so far in the second wave has not crossed 8 percent yet over a 7-day moving average – and that is a third of the July peak. And the dangerous inference from that is a lax attitude, and lip servicing as far as administrative measures on public gathering are concerned.

The fact that Pakistan’s share of positive cases to tests is now comfortably higher than the likes of India, Spain, France, United Kingdom, and other hard-hit countries – should be an eye-opener in itself. Mind you, most of these countries are on the way towards bending the second wave curve, after imposition of various forms of mobility restrictions.

In Pakistan’s case, the lockdown is out of the equation – and that has been a stated policy for quite some while. And the government has all the right reasons to maintain that as well, as the first wave was ridden and bent with considerable success, with smart targeted movement restrictions. But what is often forgotten is that there was a considerably tough 3 weeks of nationwide lockdown, and all forms of smart lockdowns followed after.

Secondly, the opening of the economy was laudable but was also chosen smartly. Big events were by and large not allowed, and that is what kept the rate under control. Today, super spreader events happen across the country for political, social or religious purposes, despite the bans. And there should be no one out there in any doubt that these events will not lead to a higher pace of spread.

The temperatures have changed, and the vaccine may now be well and truly not very far – the virus remains contagious, and its ability to infect more people in mass gatherings, has not proven to be lost. If anything, the fatality rate has increased alarmingly. The ventilator occupancy has been on a rapid rise, growing faster than the increase in active cases. The number of people dying as percentage of active cases has also increased considerably.

This may not be anywhere close yet, to the highs seen in July in terms of hospitalization, but who is to say, it won’t get there? The virus will surely not decide itself to stop being infectious without corrective measures. Mind you, the country’s largest city, Karachi is already where it was during the first peak in terms of positivity rate at 21 percent. The pressure on the city’s hospitals is already more than it was back then, merely due to higher number of people needing medical attention.

For all those pinning hopes on the vaccine, it won’t arrive before there is a considerable loss of life if business as usual continues. Hope is not a plan. It is time to go back to the drawing board and come back with stricter rules of the game.