US natgas futures slip from 8-month high as demand slowly eases

US natural gas futures on Monday slipped from an eight-month high in the previous session as output slowly increases and on forecasts for milder weather and lower air conditioning demand than previously expected.

That price decline came despite a steady increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Front-month gas futures fell 1.7 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.339 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since Dec. 5.

Electricity prices in the US West, meanwhile, soared to record highs as California consumers prepared for more rotating outages after the grid operator ordered utilities to shut power over the weekend to reduce strain on the system during a brutal heat wave.

Gas speculators last week boosted their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to their highest since November 2018 on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds when state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns.

Although US and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 58% jump in prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands so far in August helped pull US gas up about 30% this month. That made it profitable for more US LNG cargoes to go to Europe.

US LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas flowing to the plants climbed to 4.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July.

With temperatures expected to moderate now that the hottest days of summer are in the past, Refinitiv projected US demand, including exports, will decline from an average of 90.4 bcfd this week to 88.1 bcfd next week.