ISLAMABAD: Anatol Lieven, a British author and professor at Georgetown University, Thursday hoped that Pakistan would not be forced into taking sides between the US and China.
Speaking at the Institute for Policy Reforms (IPR) online seminar titled 'Has the US-China Cold War begun already? Implications for Pakistan', Lieven said that he hope that a new 'Cold War' between the US and China could be avoided, 'but it seems that there is a bipartisan consensus in the United States to view China as an adversary, despite whoever wins in the next US elections'.
However, he added that there are major differences from the current situation and the previous 'Cold War'. During the last 'Cold War', he pointed out that the US and Soviet Union had very limited economic relations.
China and the US on the other hand, he added are deeply interconnected and interdependent because of their economies. "This makes the situation complicated for the two countries. Also, the US is no longer as before," he said, adding that the US public is opposed to new combat.
Regarding the recent Sino-Indian tensions, Prof Anatol stated that the key question will be just how far the US goes in supporting and backing India against China.
Former foreign secretary Riaz Khokhar said that while the 'cold war' with the former USSR has ended, it now seems that a new cold war industry has begun.
"There is obviously deep concern about the state of international relations," he said, adding that now with the COVID-19 pandemic, the world stands transformed.
He said that there is great unhappiness that the international community has not been able to come together on this issue, mainly because the principal global leader, the US has not shown leadership.
He said that the upcoming US elections have ratcheted up the tension, adding that President Trump should act tough to win over his right-wing nationalist supporters.
Also, he added that President Trump has begun some rash foreign policy initiatives. Of late, he stated that the US's unpredictability has become a source of concern.
"United States is pressurizing China with its military presence. It will also pressure its allies for support. In return, China is also forming counter policies to defend its interests and to oppose US hegemony," said the former foreign secretary.
Former DG ISI Asad Durrani said that the US and China are heading towards a "Thucydides Trap" a terminology that predicts that when a rising power threatens to unsettle the ruling power, the end result is war.
He felt that an eventual war between the two powers seems very possible. Both sides are now in the process of establishing future alliances. He said that the US is depending on the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - Quad -with Australia, India, New Zealand, and Japan. While China will ally with Russia, Pakistan and possibly Iran, he added.
Chairman IPR, Humayun Akhtar Khan said that the evolution of the current rivalry between China and the US may determine how events unfold in the coming years, for the world in general and our region. Although the competition between the US and China seems an uneven one, it is nonetheless real, he added.
For our region, he added that this is a vital issue and holds a key to how our part of the world evolves. "There is the promise arising from considerations of geography, connectivity and shifting economic gravity. Until now, many people thought that prosperity in the region is possible depending on whether its leaders agree to work together and how each country takes up internal reforms," he added.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020
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