Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry has raised its 2011 grain harvest forecast to "up to 45 million tonnes" from 42-43 million and expects a jump in exports, a senior ministry official said on Thursday. "We see (2011/12) exports at 19-20 million tonnes including 8-9 million tonnes of wheat, 4 million tonnes of maize and 5-6 million tonnes of barley," Anatoly Rozgon, the head of the ministry's planting department, told reporters.
"As for the current season, exports will be in line with our earlier forecast and will total 13.5 million tonnes." Last year, a severe drought threw the Black Sea grain market into turmoil. Russia banned all grain exports, and Ukraine - previously the world's largest barley exporter and one of the top five for wheat and maize - imposed export quotas in October.
The curbs have already reduced grain exports from the ex-Soviet republic to 8.1 million tonnes in the first nine months of this season from 18.7 million a season earlier. But analysts said the recent government decision to cancel export quotas for maize might allow Ukraine to raise exports in 2010/11.
Rozgon said a good grain harvest this year would allow Ukraine to avoid export curbs. Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said this month that Kiev would not impose export restrictions if it gets a good harvest. Analysts say the 2011 grain crop could total 44.7 million tonnes and that exports could jump to 22-23 million in 2011/12. That compares with exports of 21.5 million tonnes of grain in 2009/10 and more than 25 million in 2008/09.
WEATHER But weather forecasters are not so optimistic. Tetyana Adamenko, who heads the agricultural department of Ukraine's state weather centre, said cold and dry weather this spring had already affected the harvest of spring grains. According to the government, farms had sown 95 percent of spring grains as of April 27, while farmers had completed the sowing at the same date in 2010.
"The weather is not favourable for spring grains. The last month of this winter and the first month of this spring were too cold and dry," Adamenko said. She said heavy rains could improve the situation, but forecasters did not expect rain in the near future. Adamenko said almost all the winter grain crops were in good and satisfactory condition, however. Winter wheat amounts to about 95 percent of Ukraine's total wheat harvest.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.