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Markets

Sugar dips, cocoa falls, eyes on weather

Published August 6, 2012 Updated August 6, 2012 12:31pm

sugar-LONDON: Raw sugar futures on ICE dipped on Monday, weighed by harvest pressure in Brazil, while cocoa fell in a technically driven correction, pressured by a firmer dollar.

Arabica coffee futures edged higher, with upside potential capped by harvesting in Brazil amid generally favourable weather conditions.

A key focus of the softs markets was weather in Brazil, the world's top sugar and coffee producer, and in West Africa, the main cocoa growing region. Dry weather in West Africa could erode cocoa output prospects, dealers said.

A slow start to the monsoon in India, the world's number 2 sugar producer, and the risk of the El Nino weather phenomenon curbing production towards the end of the year, underpinned sugar prices.

Benchmark October sugar futures on ICE eased 0.01 cent or 0.05 percent to 21.99 cents a lb at 1116 GMT, after touching a one-month low of 21.78 cents on Friday.

Expectations of a big global sugar surplus, fuelled by northern hemisphere harvests in coming months, were seen setting a cap sugar.

"We continue to anticipate a new range of 21 to 22 cents basis October in the near/medium term and suspect producers and trade are gearing up to sell anything above on any rally," said Nick Penney of brokerage Sucden Financial.

A London-based broker said he anticipated that Brazilian cane crush figures in the second half of July would exceed the first half of the month due to favourable harvest weather.

October white sugar on Liffe were up 20 cents or 0.03 percent at $609.80 per tonne in light turnover of 744 lots.

Thai sugar premiums are likely to stay at two-year highs.

Speculators cut their net long position in raw sugar by 2,532 lots to 80,848 lots, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.

Cocoa futures fell below multi-month highs, with potential downside capped by the dry weather in West Africa and worries over the potential impact of El Nino on production.

ICE September cocoa futures fell $24 or 1 percent to $2,374 a tonne, trading below a 4-1/2-month high, basis front month, of $2,436 touched on Friday.

"Cocoa couldn't get above $2,400, so some people decided to take profits," said Keith Flury, a senior soft commodities analyst with Rabobank.

London December cocoa fell 6 pounds or 0.4 percent to 1,624 pounds per tonne in thin volume of 461 lots, below an 8-1/2-month high, basis second month, of 1,651 pounds hit on Friday.

Price differentials for cocoa beans in the European cash market eased last week as the industry remained on the sidelines in the lead up to Ivory Coast's new crop when sector reforms will apply, traders said.

September arabicas on ICE were up 0.9 cent or 0.5 percent at $1.7470 a lb.

Upside price potential was capped by favourable harvesting weather in Brazil, dealers said.

The market anticipated a reasonable arabica harvest in Colombia, the world's fourth largest coffee producer, expecting output to exceed the four-year-average, Flury said.

Dealers said they expected arabicas prices to trade mostly sideways in the near term.

November robusta coffee futures were down $1 or 0.05 percent at $2,200 a tonne in light volume of 1,248 lots.

Flury talked of limited supplies of robusta beans before top producer Vietnam's harvest in October.

"Stocks numbers have continued to fall, and demand has exceeded people's expectations," he said.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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