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Markets

Turkish lira, bonds down after jump in oil prices

Published Updated

turkish-lirasISTANBUL: The Turkish lira fell on Friday after the central bank eased liquidity while rising oil prices triggered concerns over a current account deficit that is seen as the economy's main weakness, pushing down bonds.

The share market escaped the bearishness only after a technical problem forced the Istanbul Stock Exchange to cancel the morning trading session on Friday, and there was no word on when trading would resume.

Investors sold Turkish assets after crude prices leapt to their highest levels since 2008 in late trade on Thursday, raising concerns Turkey's vulnerability to external shocks due to its heavy dependence on imported energy.

"We saw foreign investors sell lira due to rising oil prices as it triggers concerns about the current account gap," said Pinar Uslu, strategist in ING's Affluent Banking department in Istanbul.

Strong economic growth led to a whopping current account deficit equivalent to 10 percent of GDP last year.

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for Turkey's 2012 gross domestic product growth to 2.3 percent, marking a sharp revision from the 0.4 percent growth it had forecast in January. Turkish economy is expected to have grown around 8.5 percent in 2011.

Traders noted strong demand for dollars from Turkish companies needing to pay import bills. Euro weakness against the dollar also weighed on the lira, as Europe is Turkey's biggest export market.

By 0953 GMT, the lira stood at 1.7621 versus the dollar, weaker than 1.7555 in late trade on Thursday.

Against its euro-dollar basket the lira stood at 2.0481, compared with 2.0468 in late trade on Thursday.

The central bank's liquidity easing also pushed the lira down, some analysts said.

Turkish Central Bank increased on Friday the total weekly stock funding amount to 29 billion lira from 27 billion lira beforehand and the monthly stock funding to 22 billion lira from 21 billion lira.

The yield on Turkey's two-year benchmark bond rose to 9.28 percent, from a previous close at 9.23 percent.

"The lira's weakness and oil prices increase inflation concerns and push bond yields up," said Tufan Comert, a strategist at Garanti Securities.

Rising energy prices create a serious upside risk to Turkey's inflation rate which is already above 10 percent, way above the central bank's year-end target of 5 percent.

The main stock index closed virtually unchanged on Thursday at 60,725.88 points, outperforming a 0.4 percent drop in the MSCI emerging markets index.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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