Indian rupee posts longest winning run in a year on exporter flows, bank dollar sales

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee ended higher against the U.S. dollar for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, logging its longest winning streak in a year, as lenders and exports cut dollar positions aggressively.

The rupee ended at 94.3325, up 0.2% from its previous close. The currency has gained about 1.5% in the last five sessions.

The rupee had opened weaker, after a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve’s latest policy projections, and immediately hit day’s low of 94.7025 to the U.S. dollar.

However, it soon changed its direction, climbing all the way to 94.19, its highest level in six weeks.

Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, attributed the change in direction to fixing-related selling in the USD/INR pair.

“There was selling across foreign banks and private banks, which have seen strong FCNR-B flows, while aggressive selling from exporters supported the rupee, despite a higher dollar index.”

The central bank was active in small pockets through the day to absorb the dollar inflows, he added.

Exporters were the dominant force in the dollar/rupee market, with aggressive dollar sales adding strong downward pressure on the pair, traders said.

The move reflected the unwinding of residual long-dollar positions, they added, as investors anticipated further dollar strength due to the Fed’s hawkish outlook.

The U.S. central bank’s updated projections showed a notable hardening in rate expectations, with policymakers pencilling in at least one rate hike in 2026. Markets have also fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike before the end of December.

Declining crude oil prices provided an additional tailwind for the rupee. Brent crude futures dropped 2.5% in Asian trade, extending losses after the U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace agreement on Wednesday.

Lower oil prices typically support the rupee by easing India’s import bill and reducing dollar demand from oil companies.