NEW YORK: U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a one-month high on Monday on forecasts for cooler weather and more demand next week than previously expected and on soaring global energy prices and supply concerns as the U.S.-Iran war escalated.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 13.5 cents, or 4.2%, to $3.321 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since February 6.
Even though the shutdown of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export production in Qatar removed about 20% of global LNG supplies, prices in the U.S. have reacted, but not by as much as elsewhere in the world because America produces all the gas it needs and was already exporting all the LNG it could. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more gas.
Since the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, U.S. gas has gained about 16% this week versus 89% in Europe and 46% in Asia.
Supply and demand
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
READ MORE: US natgas prices edge up on big storage withdrawal
Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year, which should keep stockpiles about 2% below normal for the week ended March 6, the same as during the week ended February 27.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 24, which should keep heating demand and the amount of gas energy firms need to pull from storage low in coming weeks. The weather, however, is expected to be colder next week than this week.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 110.9 bcfd this week to 126.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG’s outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 18.1 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
In Texas, Freeport LNG’s 2.4-bcfd export plant shut on Sunday due to an issue with feedgas to the facility.
In the Middle East, QatarEnergy halted LNG production and declared a force majeure due to the Iran war, causing global gas prices to soar. Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world along with the U.S. and Australia.
Gas soared to a three-year high of around $21 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and close to a two-year high of around $16 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
Comments