Wall Street Week Ahead: Heavy earnings week, jobs data to test US stocks after Microsoft swoon

NEW YORK: Another huge batch of corporate earnings including from megacaps Alphabet and Amazon will test the US stock market in the coming week after a disappointing report from heavyweight Microsoft weighed on equity indexes. Wall Street also will focus on the monthly US jobs report due on February 6. This week, the Federal Reserve pointed to signs of stabilization in the labor market as the US central bank paused its interest rate-cutting cycle.

With the stock market entering the fourth year of a bull market, investors have been wary of rising valuations, particularly for high-flying names benefiting from optimism over artificial-intelligence driven profits.

Microsoft, which has spent massively on infrastructure to support AI applications, saw its shares battered on Thursday after its cloud business failed to impress, while software shares were broadly punished amid further disappointment elsewhere in the industry.

“For those companies where expectations have become very, very lofty, the onus is going to be on them to deliver,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “Even if they show growth, if it is growth that is not up to the expectations of the market, there is a risk there that their stock price could be punished.”

Despite dipping on Thursday, the benchmark S&P 500 remained up nearly 2 percent for the year and near record-high levels. The index earlier in the week broke above the 7,000 level for the first time, before pulling back.

BIG EARNINGS WEEK ON TAP About one quarter of the S&P 500 is set to report quarterly results in the coming week, with strong expected US profit growth a key source of optimism underpinning bullish outlooks for equities in 2026.

Of 133 S&P 500 companies that reported results as of Thursday, 74.4 percent posted earnings above analysts’ expectations, slightly below the 78 percent rate over the prior four quarters, according to LSEG IBES. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have climbed 10.2 percent from a year earlier. In contrast to Microsoft, Meta Platforms — another megacap company and major AI spender — posted strong sales in its quarterly report that boosted its shares.

Investors will now focus on results and capital spending plans from Google parent Alphabet and Amazon, two other AI-focused “hyperscalers.”

“Although investor reaction to earnings announcements from a couple of the hyperscalers was mixed, it did confirm that capex spending on building out AI infrastructure will not see any let up,” said Sid Vaidya, chief investment strategist at TD Wealth.

Other companies set to report next week include weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices and media giant Walt Disney. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to increase earnings by 15 percent in 2026, putting their financial outlooks under the microscope.

“The stock market is largely reflecting the positive fundamentals that are driving that, and earnings growth is the biggest component of that,” Vaidya said.

The coming week’s jobs report will also give Wall Street a critical look at the economy’s health. The nonfarm payrolls report for January is expected to show growth of 70,000, according to a Reuters poll.

Data flow is normalizing following the lag effects from the 43-day government shutdown late last year that delayed key economic reports. The monthly consumer price index, closely watched for inflation trends, is due the following week.

“We haven’t really gotten a lot of clean looks at the state of the labor market and inflation because of that government shutdown last year, so we think those are going to probably be more important than usual,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

Following Wednesday’s Fed meeting, markets are now pricing in the central bank to hold off on further rate cuts until its June meeting, although any surprise weakening in the labor market could sway those expectations.